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Paperclip Agent 89f56fc78a metrics: stand up the weekly funnel job (FRE-202)

`marketing/metrics/weekly.md` has been a placeholder since the marketing tree
landed — it promised a funnel and the one thing that moved, and nothing
produced it. This adds the producer: one command reads the live databases and
rewrites the file.

`scripts/weekly-metrics.ts` writes `marketing/metrics/weekly.md` from
`VisitorAnalytics` (visits, downloads, campaigns) and the-nook's `trials`,
`licenses`, `activations` (the paid funnel). It needs four env vars —
TURSO_DB_URL/TOKEN and NOOK_DB_URL/TOKEN — and imports no server env, so the
job runs from a checkout that has no Stripe or Apple secrets.
`src/server/weekly-metrics.ts` holds the queries and the renderer, taking both
connections as arguments; the tests run them against an in-memory SQLite shaped
like production, the same way the backfill suite does.

The campaign breakdown groups exactly as `getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns`
does (top 10, untagged excluded), so the weekly read and /analytics cannot
drift into different label sets.

The first real report says more about the instrumentation than about demand,
and the renderer computes that rather than asserting it:

- every addressed row the table has ever held (12,035 of 12,048) is loopback,
  so "unique visitors" is one host and per-channel reach cannot be read;
- the landing door and the file route both write `/api/downloads/thenook`, so
  "download click" and "DMG served" are one label — one served click writes two
  rows, a failed click one, a Sparkle update one;
- `POST /api/the-nook/checkout` records nothing, so checkout start is only a
  page-view proxy;
- `VisitorAnalytics` has no host dimension, so the Nook's `/` is freno.me's `/`.

Those three gaps are reported beside the numbers, not papered over. Week 0
(2026-10-22 → 2026-10-29): visit 61, download 156, trial 2, checkout 0,
purchase 0, activation 0 — and the one thing that moved is the download stage,
0 → 156, because the label was introduced that week.

Tests: `bun test src/server/weekly-metrics.test.ts` — 12 pass, 0 fail. The full
suite's 15 failures are pre-existing: this checkout's .env lacks
NOOK_LICENSE_PRIVATE_KEY, NOOK_STRIPE_SK/WEBHOOK/PRICE and LINEAGE_JWT_SECRET,
and every failure is that env validation.

Scripts/ is gitignored, so `scripts/weekly-metrics.ts` was added with `-f`, the
way the existing tracked scripts are.

FRE-202

2026-10-29 15:58:51 +00:00

2.9 KiB

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Weekly funnel snapshot

Window: 2026-10-22 16:00:00 → 2026-10-29 16:00:00 UTC (7 days). Previous: 2026-10-15 16:00:00 → 2026-10-22 16:00:00 UTC.

Generated by bun --env-file=.env scripts/weekly-metrics.ts; regenerated weekly, never hand-edited. The analysis is the CMO's.

Funnel

Stage	This week	Last week	Change
visit (page views)	61	56	+5
download click → DMG served (one label) †	156	0	+156
trial started	2	0	+2
checkout page visit †	0	0	0
purchase (licence issued)	0	0	0
activation	0	0	0

Campaigns

Top 10 by volume, untagged excluded — the same grouping getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns returns.

Source	Medium	Campaign	Rows
hn	post	launch	2
direct	—	deploycheck-direct	1
hn	—	flushproof	1
hn	post	deploycheck-ref	1
r_macapps	—	week2	1
x	—	—	1

7 of 356 rows in the window carry campaign tags; the rest are untagged and therefore unattributed.

The one thing that moved

download click → DMG served (one label): 0 → 156 (+156).

Before acting on these numbers

356 of 356 rows in the window came from a loopback address (127.0.0.1 / ::1); every one of the 12035 addressed rows the table has ever held is loopback (13 carry no address). Either this host is the only audience, or the app sits behind a local proxy and getRequestIP records the proxy, not the visitor. Either way the address identifies nobody — "unique visitors" collapses to one host and per-channel reach cannot be read from it.
The download stage is one label, not two. The landing-door route and the file route that serves the DMG both write /api/downloads/thenook, so "download click → DMG served" cannot be split: one served click writes two rows, a click that fails to resolve writes one, and a Sparkle update writes one. Of this window's 156 download rows, 156 are loopback and 117 are not browser user agents (curl, Sparkle, link-preview crawlers).
Checkout start is not recorded. POST /api/the-nook/checkout — the call that actually creates the Stripe session — writes nothing to analytics; the only trace is the /checkout page view reported above, which is a page, not a started checkout.
There is no host dimension. VisitorAnalytics records a path, not the site, so the Nook's landing page (/ on nook.freno.me) is the same row as freno.me's root. "visit" above is site-wide page views, not Nook visits.
No conversion rate before the cohort matures. Trial→paid belongs to the mature Day 28–35 read (FRE-197); a ratio from a partial cohort is not a metric.

† Proxy or merged label — see Before acting on these numbers above.

Sources

VisitorAnalytics (freno.me Turso DB) — visits, downloads, campaigns.
trials, licenses, activations (the-nook Turso DB) — the paid funnel.
Generated 2026-10-29T16:00:00Z.

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