Merge pull request 'metrics: stand up the weekly funnel job (FRE-202)' (#3) from agent-cto/freno-dev:freno-dev/FRE-202-weekly-metrics into master

Reviewed-on: Mike/freno-dev#3

marketing/README.md

@@ -22,3 +22,12 @@ a human reviews and moves it to `approved/` → the human publishes from `approv
 under their own account → the artifact (or a pointer) lands in `posted/`.
 
 Nothing in `drafts/` or `pending/` is ever publishable, by anyone, by any means.
+
+## The weekly read
+
+`bun --env-file=.env scripts/weekly-metrics.ts` (or `bun run metrics:weekly`)
+rewrites `metrics/weekly.md` from the live databases: the staged funnel, the
+campaign breakdown (`getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns`' grouping), and the one
+stage that moved. It needs `TURSO_DB_URL`, `TURSO_DB_TOKEN`, `NOOK_DB_URL` and
+`NOOK_DB_TOKEN` — no other production secret. The file is generated; never
+hand-edit it. The numbers are engineering's; the interpretation is the CMO's.

marketing/metrics/weekly.md

@@ -1,4 +1,51 @@
 # Weekly funnel snapshot
 
-Generated weekly from the analytics DB + `trials`/`licenses`/`activations`.
-Format: the funnel numbers, what moved, and the one thing worth acting on.
+Window: **2026-10-22 16:00:00 → 2026-10-29 16:00:00 UTC** (7 days). Previous: 2026-10-15 16:00:00 → 2026-10-22 16:00:00 UTC.
+
+Generated by `bun --env-file=.env scripts/weekly-metrics.ts`; regenerated weekly, never hand-edited. The analysis is the CMO's.
+
+## Funnel
+
+| Stage | This week | Last week | Change |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| visit (page views) | 61 | 56 | +5 |
+| download click → DMG served (one label) † | 156 | 0 | +156 |
+| trial started | 2 | 0 | +2 |
+| checkout page visit † | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| purchase (licence issued) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| activation | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+
+## Campaigns
+
+Top 10 by volume, untagged excluded — the same grouping `getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns` returns.
+
+| Source | Medium | Campaign | Rows |
+|---|---|---|---:|
+| hn | post | launch | 2 |
+| direct | — | deploycheck-direct | 1 |
+| hn | — | flushproof | 1 |
+| hn | post | deploycheck-ref | 1 |
+| r_macapps | — | week2 | 1 |
+| x | — | — | 1 |
+
+7 of 356 rows in the window carry campaign tags; the rest are untagged and therefore unattributed.
+
+## The one thing that moved
+
+**download click → DMG served (one label): 0 → 156 (+156).**
+
+## Before acting on these numbers
+
+- **356 of 356 rows in the window came from a loopback address** (127.0.0.1 / ::1); every one of the 12035 addressed rows the table has ever held is loopback (13 carry no address). Either this host is the only audience, or the app sits behind a local proxy and `getRequestIP` records the proxy, not the visitor. Either way the address identifies nobody — "unique visitors" collapses to one host and per-channel reach cannot be read from it.
+- **The download stage is one label, not two.** The landing-door route and the file route that serves the DMG both write `/api/downloads/thenook`, so "download click → DMG served" cannot be split: one served click writes two rows, a click that fails to resolve writes one, and a Sparkle update writes one. Of this window's 156 download rows, 156 are loopback and 117 are not browser user agents (curl, Sparkle, link-preview crawlers).
+- **Checkout start is not recorded.** `POST /api/the-nook/checkout` — the call that actually creates the Stripe session — writes nothing to analytics; the only trace is the /checkout page view reported above, which is a page, not a started checkout.
+- **There is no host dimension.** `VisitorAnalytics` records a path, not the site, so the Nook's landing page (`/` on nook.freno.me) is the same row as freno.me's root. "visit" above is site-wide page views, not Nook visits.
+- **No conversion rate before the cohort matures.** Trial→paid belongs to the mature Day 28–35 read (FRE-197); a ratio from a partial cohort is not a metric.
+
+† Proxy or merged label — see *Before acting on these numbers* above.
+
+## Sources
+
+- `VisitorAnalytics` (freno.me Turso DB) — visits, downloads, campaigns.
+- `trials`, `licenses`, `activations` (the-nook Turso DB) — the paid funnel.
+- Generated 2026-10-29T16:00:00Z.