forked from Mike/freno-dev
metrics: stand up the weekly funnel job (FRE-202)
`marketing/metrics/weekly.md` has been a placeholder since the marketing tree landed — it promised a funnel and the one thing that moved, and nothing produced it. This adds the producer: one command reads the live databases and rewrites the file. `scripts/weekly-metrics.ts` writes `marketing/metrics/weekly.md` from `VisitorAnalytics` (visits, downloads, campaigns) and the-nook's `trials`, `licenses`, `activations` (the paid funnel). It needs four env vars — TURSO_DB_URL/TOKEN and NOOK_DB_URL/TOKEN — and imports no server env, so the job runs from a checkout that has no Stripe or Apple secrets. `src/server/weekly-metrics.ts` holds the queries and the renderer, taking both connections as arguments; the tests run them against an in-memory SQLite shaped like production, the same way the backfill suite does. The campaign breakdown groups exactly as `getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns` does (top 10, untagged excluded), so the weekly read and /analytics cannot drift into different label sets. The first real report says more about the instrumentation than about demand, and the renderer computes that rather than asserting it: - every addressed row the table has ever held (12,035 of 12,048) is loopback, so "unique visitors" is one host and per-channel reach cannot be read; - the landing door and the file route both write `/api/downloads/thenook`, so "download click" and "DMG served" are one label — one served click writes two rows, a failed click one, a Sparkle update one; - `POST /api/the-nook/checkout` records nothing, so checkout start is only a page-view proxy; - `VisitorAnalytics` has no host dimension, so the Nook's `/` is freno.me's `/`. Those three gaps are reported beside the numbers, not papered over. Week 0 (2026-10-22 → 2026-10-29): visit 61, download 156, trial 2, checkout 0, purchase 0, activation 0 — and the one thing that moved is the download stage, 0 → 156, because the label was introduced that week. Tests: `bun test src/server/weekly-metrics.test.ts` — 12 pass, 0 fail. The full suite's 15 failures are pre-existing: this checkout's .env lacks NOOK_LICENSE_PRIVATE_KEY, NOOK_STRIPE_SK/WEBHOOK/PRICE and LINEAGE_JWT_SECRET, and every failure is that env validation. Scripts/ is gitignored, so `scripts/weekly-metrics.ts` was added with `-f`, the way the existing tracked scripts are. FRE-202
This commit is contained in:
Paperclip Agent
591
src/server/weekly-metrics.ts
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591
src/server/weekly-metrics.ts
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@@ -0,0 +1,591 @@
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/**
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* The weekly funnel reading: `marketing/metrics/weekly.md`'s data half.
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*
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* The funnel the marketing cluster agreed on is
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*
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* visit → download click → DMG served → trial started → checkout started
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* → purchase → activation
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*
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* and this module reads it from the two live databases, plus the campaign
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* dimension the /analytics page already exposes through
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* `getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns`.
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*
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* Two properties matter more than the numbers:
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*
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* - It takes both connections as arguments. `~/server/analytics` imports the
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* full server env (Stripe keys, Apple secret, licence key …); the weekly
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* job only needs the two databases, and must be runnable from a checkout
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* whose `.env` carries nothing else. The SQL here is the same shape as the
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* analytics summaries, so the weekly read and the dashboard cannot drift
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* into different label sets.
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* - Every stage carries what it actually measured. Two of the seven agreed
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* stages share one label in production today and a third is only a page-view
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* proxy; the report states that next to the number instead of inventing a
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* figure (see `renderWeeklyMarkdown`).
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*
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* No `~/env`, no `~/server/database`: the caller owns the connections, the
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* tests own an in-memory SQLite, and the script owns the libsql clients.
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*/
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import { DOWNLOAD_PATH_PREFIX } from "~/lib/download-asset";
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/** The one asset key the Nook lands under — `downloadPath("thenook")`. */
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export const NOOK_DOWNLOAD_PATH = `${DOWNLOAD_PATH_PREFIX}thenook`;
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/** An `execute`-shaped connection: the libsql client and the test adapter both fit. */
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export interface MetricsConn {
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execute(query: {
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sql: string;
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args?: any[];
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}): Promise<{ rows: unknown[]; rowsAffected?: number }>;
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}
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export interface Connections {
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/** freno.me Turso DB — VisitorAnalytics. */
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analytics: MetricsConn;
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/** the-nook Turso DB — trials, licenses, activations. */
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nook: MetricsConn;
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}
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export type StageKey =
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| "visit"
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| "download"
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| "trial"
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| "checkout"
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| "purchase"
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| "activation";
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export interface StageDef {
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key: StageKey;
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label: string;
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/** True when the number is a proxy or a merged label, not a clean stage. */
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approximate: boolean;
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}
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/**
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* The seven agreed stages. `download` deliberately carries two of them: the
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* door and the file route both write `/api/downloads/thenook`, so a click and
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* the DMG it fetched are one label in the data (proved in the report's caveats).
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*/
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export const STAGES: StageDef[] = [
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{ key: "visit", label: "visit (page views)", approximate: false },
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{
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key: "download",
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label: "download click → DMG served (one label)",
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approximate: true
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},
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{ key: "trial", label: "trial started", approximate: false },
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{
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key: "checkout",
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label: "checkout page visit",
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approximate: true
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},
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{ key: "purchase", label: "purchase (licence issued)", approximate: false },
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{ key: "activation", label: "activation", approximate: false }
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];
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export interface FunnelCounts {
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visit: number;
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download: number;
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trial: number;
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checkout: number;
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purchase: number;
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activation: number;
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}
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export interface CampaignRow {
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source: string | null;
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medium: string | null;
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campaign: string | null;
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count: number;
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}
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/** Traffic-shape facts the report has to state next to the funnel. */
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export interface WindowTraffic {
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analyticsRows: number;
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loopbackRows: number;
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/** All-time row counts, so "every row ever" is a checked claim, not a guess. */
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allTimeRows: number;
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allTimeAddressedRows: number;
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allTimeLoopbackRows: number;
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downloadRows: number;
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downloadLoopbackRows: number;
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downloadNonBrowserRows: number;
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}
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export interface Mover {
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key: StageKey;
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label: string;
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now: number;
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before: number;
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delta: number;
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}
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export interface WeeklyReport {
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window: { start: string; end: string; days: number };
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previous: { start: string; end: string };
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counts: FunnelCounts;
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previousCounts: FunnelCounts;
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campaigns: CampaignRow[];
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taggedRows: number;
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traffic: WindowTraffic;
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mover: Mover | null;
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generatedAt: string;
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}
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/** Loopback addresses — every row the live table has ever held. */
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const LOOPBACK = ["127.0.0.1", "::1", "::ffff:127.0.0.1"];
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/** SQLite's `datetime()` string, UTC: `YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS`. */
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export function sqlTime(date: Date): string {
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return date.toISOString().slice(0, 19).replace("T", " ");
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}
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export interface Windows {
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current: { start: string; end: string };
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previous: { start: string; end: string };
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}
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/**
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* The current window is `[now - days, now)` and the previous one sits directly
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* before it, so a weekly read always compares like with like. Boundaries are
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* passed as SQL parameters rather than `datetime('now', …)` so the file a run
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* writes is reproducible and the two queries cannot straddle a second.
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*/
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export function windowsFor(now: Date, days: number): Windows {
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const span = days * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
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const end = now;
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const start = new Date(end.getTime() - span);
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const previousEnd = start;
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const previousStart = new Date(previousEnd.getTime() - span);
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return {
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current: { start: sqlTime(start), end: sqlTime(end) },
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previous: { start: sqlTime(previousStart), end: sqlTime(previousEnd) }
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};
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}
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function toNumber(value: unknown): number {
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if (typeof value === "number") return value;
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if (typeof value === "bigint") return Number(value);
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if (typeof value === "string") return Number(value) || 0;
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return 0;
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}
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async function scalar(
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conn: MetricsConn,
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sql: string,
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args: any[]
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): Promise<number> {
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const result = await conn.execute({ sql, args });
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const row = result.rows[0] as Record<string, unknown> | undefined;
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if (!row) return 0;
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return toNumber(Object.values(row)[0]);
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}
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async function countInWindow(
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conn: MetricsConn,
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sql: string,
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start: string,
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end: string
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): Promise<number> {
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return scalar(conn, sql, [start, end]);
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}
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/** One window's funnel. Two databases, one call. */
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export async function readFunnel(
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conns: Connections,
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window: { start: string; end: string }
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): Promise<FunnelCounts> {
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const { analytics, nook } = conns;
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const { start, end } = window;
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const visit = await countInWindow(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
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AND path NOT LIKE '/api/%'`,
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start,
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end
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);
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const download = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
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AND path = ?`,
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[start, end, NOOK_DOWNLOAD_PATH]
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);
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const checkout = await countInWindow(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
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AND (path LIKE '/checkout%' OR path LIKE '/nook/checkout%')`,
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start,
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end
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);
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// The licence DB stores ISO-8601 (`2026-10-28T20:28:46.806Z`); the analytics
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// DB stores `YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS`. `datetime()` normalises both sides so a
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// boundary seconds apart cannot include or drop a row on string comparison.
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const trial = await scalar(
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nook,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM trials
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WHERE datetime(started_at) >= datetime(?) AND datetime(started_at) < datetime(?)`,
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[start, end]
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);
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const purchase = await scalar(
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nook,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM licenses
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WHERE datetime(created_at) >= datetime(?) AND datetime(created_at) < datetime(?)`,
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[start, end]
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);
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const activation = await scalar(
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nook,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM activations
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WHERE datetime(activated_at) >= datetime(?) AND datetime(activated_at) < datetime(?)`,
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[start, end]
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);
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return {
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visit,
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download,
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trial,
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checkout,
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purchase,
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activation
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};
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}
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/**
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* Traffic shape for one window: how much of it came from this host, and how
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* much of the download label was automation. Without these two facts the
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* numbers read as demand, which they are not.
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*/
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export async function readTraffic(
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conns: Connections,
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window: { start: string; end: string }
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): Promise<WindowTraffic> {
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const { analytics } = conns;
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const { start, end } = window;
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const placeholders = LOOPBACK.map(() => "?").join(", ");
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const allTimeRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics`,
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[]
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);
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const allTimeAddressedRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics WHERE ip_address IS NOT NULL`,
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[]
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);
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const allTimeLoopbackRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE ip_address IN (${placeholders})`,
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[...LOOPBACK]
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);
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const analyticsRows = await countInWindow(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?`,
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start,
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end
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);
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const loopbackRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
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AND ip_address IN (${placeholders})`,
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[start, end, ...LOOPBACK]
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);
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const downloadRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ? AND path = ?`,
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[start, end, NOOK_DOWNLOAD_PATH]
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);
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const downloadLoopbackRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ? AND path = ?
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AND ip_address IN (${placeholders})`,
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[start, end, NOOK_DOWNLOAD_PATH, ...LOOPBACK]
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);
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// Anything whose UA is not a browser engine: curl, Sparkle's updater,
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// link-preview crawlers. A real install click arrives as `Mozilla/5.0 …`.
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const downloadNonBrowserRows = await scalar(
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analytics,
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`SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ? AND path = ?
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AND (user_agent IS NULL OR user_agent NOT LIKE 'Mozilla/%')`,
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[start, end, NOOK_DOWNLOAD_PATH]
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);
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return {
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analyticsRows,
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loopbackRows,
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allTimeRows,
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allTimeAddressedRows,
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allTimeLoopbackRows,
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downloadRows,
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downloadLoopbackRows,
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downloadNonBrowserRows
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};
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}
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/**
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* The campaign dimension, grouped exactly as `getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns`
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* groups it: top 10 by volume, untagged rows excluded (the untagged bucket is
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* a different question and would otherwise swallow the list).
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*/
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export async function readCampaigns(
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analytics: MetricsConn,
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window: { start: string; end: string }
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): Promise<CampaignRow[]> {
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const result = await analytics.execute({
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sql: `SELECT utm_source, utm_medium, utm_campaign, COUNT(*) AS count
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FROM VisitorAnalytics
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WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
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AND (utm_source IS NOT NULL OR utm_medium IS NOT NULL OR utm_campaign IS NOT NULL)
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GROUP BY utm_source, utm_medium, utm_campaign
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ORDER BY count DESC
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LIMIT 10`,
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args: [window.start, window.end]
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});
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return result.rows.map((raw) => {
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const row = raw as Record<string, unknown>;
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return {
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source: (row.utm_source as string | null) ?? null,
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medium: (row.utm_medium as string | null) ?? null,
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campaign: (row.utm_campaign as string | null) ?? null,
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count: toNumber(row.count)
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};
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});
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}
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/**
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* "The one thing that moved": the stage with the largest absolute change
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* against the previous window. Ties go to the earlier stage, so a week when
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* nothing moved returns null rather than a made-up winner.
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*/
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export function pickMover(
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current: FunnelCounts,
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previous: FunnelCounts
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): Mover | null {
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let best: Mover | null = null;
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for (const stage of STAGES) {
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const delta = current[stage.key] - previous[stage.key];
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if (delta === 0) continue;
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if (!best || Math.abs(delta) > Math.abs(best.delta)) {
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best = {
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key: stage.key,
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label: stage.label,
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now: current[stage.key],
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before: previous[stage.key],
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delta
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};
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}
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}
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return best;
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}
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export interface ReportOptions {
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/** End of the current window; defaults to the wall clock. */
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now?: Date;
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/** Window length in days; defaults to 7. */
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days?: number;
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}
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/** Read everything `.md` needs, in one call. */
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export async function getWeeklyReport(
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conns: Connections,
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options: ReportOptions = {}
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): Promise<WeeklyReport> {
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const days = options.days ?? 7;
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if (!Number.isFinite(days) || days <= 0) {
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throw new Error(`days must be a positive number, got ${days}`);
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}
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const now = options.now ?? new Date();
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const windows = windowsFor(now, days);
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const [counts, previousCounts, traffic, campaigns] = await Promise.all([
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readFunnel(conns, windows.current),
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readFunnel(conns, windows.previous),
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readTraffic(conns, windows.current),
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readCampaigns(conns.analytics, windows.current)
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]);
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||||
|
||||
return {
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||||
window: { ...windows.current, days },
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previous: windows.previous,
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counts,
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previousCounts,
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||||
campaigns,
|
||||
taggedRows: campaigns.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.count, 0),
|
||||
traffic,
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mover: pickMover(counts, previousCounts),
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generatedAt: now.toISOString().replace(/\.\d{3}Z$/, "Z")
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||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function cell(value: string | null): string {
|
||||
return value === null || value === "" ? "—" : value;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function signed(value: number): string {
|
||||
if (value === 0) return "0";
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||||
return value > 0 ? `+${value}` : `−${Math.abs(value)}`;
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||||
}
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||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Render the weekly file. Interpretation lives in the CMO's read; this renderer
|
||||
* only states what the data is, what moved, and what the numbers cannot say.
|
||||
* The Gaps section is not boilerplate: each bullet is computed from the window
|
||||
* it describes, so it empties itself if the underlying hole is ever fixed.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
export function renderWeeklyMarkdown(report: WeeklyReport): string {
|
||||
const { counts, previousCounts, traffic } = report;
|
||||
const lines: string[] = [];
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push("# Weekly funnel snapshot");
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`Window: **${report.window.start} → ${report.window.end} UTC** (${report.window.days} days). ` +
|
||||
`Previous: ${report.previous.start} → ${report.previous.end} UTC.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
"Generated by `bun --env-file=.env scripts/weekly-metrics.ts`; regenerated " +
|
||||
"weekly, never hand-edited. The analysis is the CMO's."
|
||||
);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push("## Funnel");
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push("| Stage | This week | Last week | Change |");
|
||||
lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---:|");
|
||||
for (const stage of STAGES) {
|
||||
const now = counts[stage.key];
|
||||
const before = previousCounts[stage.key];
|
||||
const label = stage.approximate ? `${stage.label} †` : stage.label;
|
||||
lines.push(`| ${label} | ${now} | ${before} | ${signed(now - before)} |`);
|
||||
}
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push("## Campaigns");
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
if (report.campaigns.length === 0) {
|
||||
lines.push("_No tagged traffic in the window._");
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
"Top 10 by volume, untagged excluded — the same grouping " +
|
||||
"`getAnalyticsSummary.topCampaigns` returns."
|
||||
);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push("| Source | Medium | Campaign | Rows |");
|
||||
lines.push("|---|---|---|---:|");
|
||||
for (const row of report.campaigns) {
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`| ${cell(row.source)} | ${cell(row.medium)} | ${cell(row.campaign)} | ${row.count} |`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`${report.taggedRows} of ${traffic.analyticsRows} rows in the window carry ` +
|
||||
`campaign tags; the rest are untagged and therefore unattributed.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push("## The one thing that moved");
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
if (!report.mover) {
|
||||
lines.push("_Nothing moved: every stage held its previous-week value._");
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
const mover = report.mover;
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`**${mover.label}: ${mover.before} → ${mover.now} (${signed(mover.delta)}).**`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push("## Before acting on these numbers");
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
if (traffic.analyticsRows > 0 && traffic.loopbackRows > 0) {
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`- **${traffic.loopbackRows} of ${traffic.analyticsRows} rows in the window came from a loopback address** ` +
|
||||
`(127.0.0.1 / ::1)` +
|
||||
(traffic.allTimeAddressedRows > 0 &&
|
||||
traffic.allTimeAddressedRows === traffic.allTimeLoopbackRows
|
||||
? `; every one of the ${traffic.allTimeAddressedRows} addressed rows the table ` +
|
||||
`has ever held is loopback (${traffic.allTimeRows - traffic.allTimeAddressedRows} carry no address)`
|
||||
: `; across the table's history, ${traffic.allTimeLoopbackRows} of ` +
|
||||
`${traffic.allTimeAddressedRows} addressed rows are loopback`) +
|
||||
`. Either this host is the only audience, or the app sits behind a local proxy ` +
|
||||
`and \`getRequestIP\` records the proxy, not the visitor. Either way the address ` +
|
||||
`identifies nobody — "unique visitors" collapses to one host and per-channel ` +
|
||||
`reach cannot be read from it.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (traffic.downloadRows > 0) {
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`- **The download stage is one label, not two.** The landing-door route and the file ` +
|
||||
`route that serves the DMG both write \`${NOOK_DOWNLOAD_PATH}\`, so ` +
|
||||
`"download click → DMG served" cannot be split: one served click writes two rows, ` +
|
||||
`a click that fails to resolve writes one, and a Sparkle update writes one. ` +
|
||||
`Of this window's ${traffic.downloadRows} download rows, ` +
|
||||
`${traffic.downloadLoopbackRows} are loopback and ` +
|
||||
`${traffic.downloadNonBrowserRows} are not browser user agents (curl, Sparkle, ` +
|
||||
`link-preview crawlers).`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`- **Checkout start is not recorded.** \`POST /api/the-nook/checkout\` — the call that ` +
|
||||
`actually creates the Stripe session — writes nothing to analytics; the only trace is ` +
|
||||
`the /checkout page view reported above, which is a page, not a started checkout.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`- **There is no host dimension.** \`VisitorAnalytics\` records a path, not the site, so ` +
|
||||
`the Nook's landing page (\`/\` on nook.freno.me) is the same row as freno.me's root. ` +
|
||||
`"visit" above is site-wide page views, not Nook visits.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
`- **No conversion rate before the cohort matures.** Trial→paid belongs to the mature ` +
|
||||
`Day 28–35 read (FRE-197); a ratio from a partial cohort is not a metric.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
lines.push(
|
||||
"† Proxy or merged label — see *Before acting on these numbers* above."
|
||||
);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push("## Sources");
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
lines.push("- `VisitorAnalytics` (freno.me Turso DB) — visits, downloads, campaigns.");
|
||||
lines.push("- `trials`, `licenses`, `activations` (the-nook Turso DB) — the paid funnel.");
|
||||
lines.push(`- Generated ${report.generatedAt}.`);
|
||||
lines.push("");
|
||||
|
||||
return lines.join("\n");
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user