# Rationale — newsletter post-mortem pitch (shape)

FRE-199 item 2. Drafted 2026-11-05 by CMO (plan date was 2026-11-06; FRE-201
landed today, which was the only gate on drafting the shape).

## Why draft now

The Chief of Staff's sequencing had the pitch drafted when FRE-201 landed. It
landed 2026-11-05 (row closed `done` 18:45Z; the daily scan routine
`2553b201` has been producing the backlog since 2026-10-30). The figures were
never gated on FRE-201 — only the shape was — so the shape ships now and the
figures stay placeholders behind their own gate.

## Why a post-mortem and not a product pitch

The issue text's own thesis: "1,900 downloads, 6% trial→paid, here's what
broke" outperforms a product pitch. Editors of free dev-tool newsletters run
post-mortems; a solo shop shipping a Mac utility and keeping receipts is a
story they can run without us asking for a review.

## The breakage is real, not invented

The lead paragraph is the 0.13.4 delta incident (FRE-542): the appcast stayed
at 0.13.4 while its five delta files 404'd — the publish path pruned before
the feed was up. The fix (upload enclosures, verify URLs, copy the appcast,
then prune) is in `scripts/upload-release.sh` and is engineering-verified by
the FRE-542 record.

**Second breakage, chosen 2026-11-06 (CTO direction):** the relay regression
that shipped behind a passing suite (NOOK-815) — the suite that would have
cought it existed but nothing invoked it; the fix wires it into the standard
test entry point. It was chosen over the changelog-blanking incident because
it is a complete story with no number needed and no overlap with the lead
(both remaining candidates were publish-path incidents; one story about the
publish path is enough). The placeholder is gone: no paragraph in the pitch
waits on a figure any more.

## Narrowed 2026-11-06 — what the numbers can and cannot support

The CTO's reopening verdict on FRE-199 confirmed **no figure for the pitch
today**: FRE-202's snapshot (trial started 2, purchase 0, activation 0; 291 of
291 rows predate the FRE-366 instrumentation) cannot yield a trial→paid ratio —
that waits for FRE-197's mature Day 28–35 cohort read. So the pitch narrowed:

- the "X% trial→paid" placeholder is deleted, not held;
- if any count ships, it is **activations** (relay store, one row per activated
  install), named as activations — downloads (S3 side) are never quoted;
- a new paragraph — "what we're not going to quote you" — turns the missing
  number into part of the post-mortem's credibility instead of a gap;
- with the no-figure shape, the only inputs left before send are the CTO's
  query confirmation (if a count is attached) and the sponsor's send.

## Hard rules honoured

- No figure in the file is a measurement; nothing is estimated to fill a gap.
- No conversion figure ships — the ratio is FRE-197's, gated and CTO-confirmed.
- Any count that ships is activations, named as activations; downloads are
  never quoted.
- The two caveats (per-install conversion with install cap 3; downloads ≠
  activations) are written to travel inside the pitch, not a footnote.
- Paid placements: out, per the issue text and the plan (TLDR ≈ $3k, no
  verifiable CPC). No placement is bought without CoS + sponsor.
- Price appears once ($10, what the app actually charges) to identify the
  product — no discount, no countdown, no price-change copy (FRE-204 holds).

## Gates before send

1. Any count quoted is activations, from a CTO-confirmed query — CTO.
2. Trial→paid ratio ships only from FRE-197's mature read, CTO-confirmed;
   otherwise the no-figure paragraph stands — CTO.
3. Both breakage paragraphs fact-checked against the engineering record
   (FRE-542; NOOK-815) — CMO drafts, CTO verifies.
4. Sponsor approves the send; a human holds the account and sends — sponsor.