marketing: FRE-199 first pair of informational pages + pitch shape (drafts)

- agent-done-signal: 'How do you know when your coding agent is done?' —
  the zero-looks-like-success cluster (1xjb3j0, 1xm09fs, 1xmnz2c, HN fhub/
  sadilek); Stop/Notification/StopFailure hooks cited to the agent's own
  docs, re-read 2026-11-05. No product, no competitor, no price.
- agent-waiting-on-permission: 'Why is my coding agent sitting on a
  permission prompt?' — the 1xhbc71 thread + invisible-permission cluster;
  permission modes, /permissions, rule syntax, acceptEdits cited to the
  permissions doc; undo-split attributed to 1xkoz06.
- newsletter-postmortem-pitch: item 2's shape, placeholders only; send
  gated on FRE-202 or a CTO-confirmed direct relay-store read.

All drafts: sponsor fact-check moves pending/ -> approved/; nothing
publishes itself.

marketing/drafts/newsletter-postmortem-pitch/rationale.md

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+# Rationale — newsletter post-mortem pitch (shape)
+
+FRE-199 item 2. Drafted 2026-11-05 by CMO (plan date was 2026-11-06; FRE-201
+landed today, which was the only gate on drafting the shape).
+
+## Why draft now
+
+The Chief of Staff's sequencing had the pitch drafted when FRE-201 landed. It
+landed 2026-11-05 (row closed `done` 18:45Z; the daily scan routine
+`2553b201` has been producing the backlog since 2026-10-30). The figures were
+never gated on FRE-201 — only the shape was — so the shape ships now and the
+figures stay placeholders behind their own gate.
+
+## Why a post-mortem and not a product pitch
+
+The issue text's own thesis: "1,900 downloads, 6% trial→paid, here's what
+broke" outperforms a product pitch. Editors of free dev-tool newsletters run
+post-mortems; a solo shop shipping a Mac utility and keeping receipts is a
+story they can run without us asking for a review.
+
+## The breakage is real, not invented
+
+The lead paragraph is the 0.13.4 delta incident (FRE-542): the appcast stayed
+at 0.13.4 while its five delta files 404'd — the publish path pruned before
+the feed was up. The fix (upload enclosures, verify URLs, copy the appcast,
+then prune) is in `scripts/upload-release.sh` and is engineering-verified by
+the FRE-542 record. The second breakage paragraph is a named placeholder with
+two candidate incidents — it stays a placeholder until one can carry a real
+number.
+
+## Hard rules honoured
+
+- Every figure is `[PLACEHOLDER]` and labelled as such; the file says in its
+  header that no figure in it is a measurement.
+- No invented number, no estimated conversion, no user counts.
+- The two caveats (per-install conversion with install cap 3; downloads ≠
+  activations) are written to travel inside the pitch, not a footnote.
+- Paid placements: out, per the issue text and the plan (TLDR ≈ $3k, no
+  verifiable CPC). No placement is bought without CoS + sponsor.
+- Price appears once ($10, what the app actually charges) to identify the
+  product — no discount, no countdown, no price-change copy (FRE-204 holds).
+
+## Gates before send
+
+1. Figures from FRE-202 or a CTO-confirmed direct relay-store read — CTO.
+2. CTO confirms the query behind every figure — CTO.
+3. Sponsor approves the send; a human holds the account and sends — sponsor.
+4. Second-breakage paragraph fact-checked against the journal — CMO drafts,
+   CTO verifies.